F1 2025 Monaco Grand Prix Weather Forecast – What to E…read more
The eighth round of the 2025 Formula 1 season takes the world’s fastest drivers to the streets of Monte Carlo for the 82nd edition of the iconic Monaco Grand Prix. As always, this jewel of the F1 calendar promises high drama, with the narrow, winding track placing a premium on qualifying performance, strategy, and—of course—weather conditions.
Local hero Charles Leclerc finally realized his dream in 2024, winning on home soil for the first time and delivering Ferrari their first Monaco victory since Sebastian Vettel’s triumph in 2017. However, replicating that glory in 2025 looks to be a tough task. Both Leclerc and seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton are struggling with poor qualifying performances this season—an ominous sign at a circuit where overtaking is notoriously difficult and grid position is everything.
The pole sitter usually ends up the race winner in Monaco, thanks to the circuit’s tight layout that punishes even the smallest of mistakes. So far in 2025, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri have been dominant in qualifying, each securing three pole positions out of the seven races so far. With that form, they enter the weekend as clear favourites to lift the winner’s trophy in Monte Carlo.
Adding to the weekend’s intrigue is a new rule for 2025: the Monaco Grand Prix will feature a mandatory two-stop race. This change is designed to inject more excitement into what can be a processional affair, giving teams and drivers more opportunities to alter strategies and adapt to unexpected developments. One key factor that could influence these strategies even further is the weather.
Weather Overview: Mixed Conditions Ahead of a Sunny Sunday
The weekend’s weather in Monte Carlo is set to be dynamic, especially during practice and qualifying sessions. The second free practice (FP2) on Friday kicks off at 5 p.m. local time, and conditions are expected to shift from the sunny and calm FP1 to cloudier, more humid weather. According to the Met Office, there’s a 30% chance of rain during FP2, with temperatures peaking at around 20°C. While the rain might not be heavy, even light showers can significantly alter grip levels and make practice runs more treacherous.
Saturday’s third practice session (FP3) begins at 12:30 p.m. local time, and the weather is likely to be more unsettled. Forecasts predict intermittent sunshine mixed with rain showers and light southern winds. The probability of precipitation rises to 50%, suggesting that FP3 could become a wet session. This could offer valuable wet-weather data for the teams but also increases the risk of drivers sliding into Monaco’s infamous barriers.
Qualifying on Saturday at 4 p.m. will be the weekend’s most critical session, and the weather could yet play a decisive role. The rain chance drops to 30% for this session, but even a brief downpour can shake up the grid. Teams will face a strategic dilemma—whether to gamble on slick tyres in drying conditions or switch to intermediates if the rain persists. Temperatures are expected to dip slightly to around 19°C, making tyre warm-up even more challenging.
Race Day: Perfect Conditions for an Iconic Showdown
Thankfully for fans and teams alike, Sunday’s race day forecast is near perfect. Clear skies are expected from morning until night, with a 0% chance of rain throughout the day. The race starts at 3 p.m. local time, and conditions will remain dry, with ambient temperatures reaching up to 20°C. The stable weather means teams can plan their two-stop strategies with confidence, but it also means overtaking will be as difficult as ever, placing even more emphasis on qualifying positions.
With ideal race conditions, a two-stop strategy, and a forecast that keeps everyone guessing through Saturday, the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix is shaping up to be a memorable event.
