Hamilton’s Grim Hopes as Mercedes…read more
There was always going to be a winner and a loser in the high-profile split between Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes. For much of the 2024 season, it seemed like Hamilton had made the right call by opting to join Ferrari in pursuit of an eighth world title. The Scuderia had been gaining ground on Red Bull, and their late-season performance suggested they were poised to be strong contenders in 2025. But as pre-season testing for the new season unfolded in Bahrain, the picture became more complicated.
Mercedes, the team Hamilton left behind, appeared to be making significant strides forward. George Russell topped the timing charts on the final day of testing, and the W16’s stability and consistency suggested the Silver Arrows had addressed many of the issues that plagued them in previous seasons. While Ferrari still showed promising pace, the early signs indicated that Mercedes might be back in the fight—a development that Hamilton perhaps hadn’t anticipated when he made his dramatic switch.
But if Hamilton’s prospects were looking somewhat uncertain, spare a thought for Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin. The Silverstone-based team had started 2023 in spectacular form, regularly challenging for podiums. However, as the season progressed, their development slowed, and they found themselves slipping back in the pecking order. Fans hoped that 2025 would see them return to contention, but early testing results have painted a less-than-encouraging picture.
Alonso wasn’t originally scheduled to be in the car on Friday morning, but a sudden illness sidelined teammate Lance Stroll. The Spaniard, always the consummate professional, stepped up to the task and later returned to the track when Stroll abandoned his session after completing just 34 laps. Unfortunately, it was a challenging outing. Alonso finished the day a distant 16th, a staggering two-and-a-half seconds behind Russell’s benchmark time.
Perhaps even more worrying than their one-lap pace was Aston Martin’s overall testing mileage. Across three days of running, the team managed just 1,656 kilometers in the AMR25, ranking ninth among all teams. The only team to cover less distance was Red Bull—though their struggles were largely due to an issue with their new rear suspension concept, something they are expected to resolve quickly. Given that pre-season testing is crucial for ironing out reliability issues and optimizing car performance, Aston Martin’s lack of mileage raises serious concerns about their competitiveness heading into the first race of the season.
Winter testing isn’t always a perfect predictor of how the season will unfold—teams sandbag, fuel loads vary, and upgrades arrive in time for the first race. However, patterns do emerge, and right now, the pattern for Aston Martin is troubling. If their car lacks both speed and reliability, Alonso and Stroll could be in for a long and frustrating campaign.
For Hamilton, the situation is more nuanced. Ferrari undoubtedly has a strong package, but if Mercedes has truly closed the gap to the front, he may find himself in an unexpected three-way battle, with his former team standing in his path. It’s a scenario few would have predicted when he announced his departure, but in Formula One, fortunes can shift rapidly.
As the lights prepare to go out for the season opener, all eyes will be on the true pecking order. Will Hamilton’s gamble pay off? Is Mercedes truly back? And can Aston Martin salvage their season before it even begins? The answers will come soon enough, but for now, the early signs suggest that the 2025 season may not unfold as expected.
